Primary problem: The international environment of crisis of island of current Huang Yan is analysed
(One) analyse Philippine so-called strategy
This Cifeilvbin inbreaks fisherman of China of maritime space of island of Chinese yellow cliff, unjustifiable harrass is normal piscatorial activity, instigate disturbance, make confront each other, try Nanhai problem " internationalization " , incident lasts up to now, chinese respect has shown huge to restrain the sincerity that solves hard with diplomacy. However, apparent Philippine did not show corresponding good faith, contrary, still have choose situation ceaselessly tall, strive for more " internationalization " intent. Crisis of yellow cliff island was not mixed as Chinese self-surrender good-tempered and be able to appease, have the tendency that continues to develop instead. Now Chinese society, especially the Chinese folk reaction to this matter already approach is boiling, the sentiment is strong, this matter is already more than it is the problem between two countries Ministry of Foreign Affairs, just become one of heat that people of current complete China pays close attention to via be without doubt ground. Below current condition, whereto of crisis of yellow cliff island goes, the move that should make more materiality will give guide and answer.
In crisis of island of this yellow cliff, we see Philippine so-called strategy can clearly:
Philippine think China is in 18 big eve, think China won't be in right now assault, adopt so " it is immediate step with harrass move upon, but on strength lesser, avert direct make war, satin pjs for woman antagonism, mouth in the sky instigates to call peace on the hand, maintain diplomacy to contact " means, try to fumble successfully give " nibble, annoy, the talk that provokes China " , progressively nibble China closes right increase. Specific for, namely Philippine raise an issue actively ceaselessly, production disturbance, step by step embezzle China legitimate rights and interests. If China does not have substantial reaction, criterion its drop rights and interests of a China with respect to embezzle. If encounter China to hold back, criterion its are teased first provoke, bully people by flaunting one's powerful connections, apply backside of purpose alleged " superpower stands together " false appearance, let a few people of Chinese arise " if Chinese assault, will direct with American battle " the mistake is psychedelic, hold back from taking action against sb for fear of injuring others, thereby self-surrender its are illegal activity. In confronting process, philippine undertake defiant humiliate by every means to China, act oneself for " the cacique that southeast Asia dares to act to China " , hit Chinese mana, try to hold duration however at the same time, word of two diplomacy occasion says when approaching burning point, pullback the problem theoretic and friendly, vociferant " China cannot with big bully small " , try in vain to make " southeast Asia will unite to cope with C satin pjs for man hina " false appearance, let a few people of Chinese arise " if be opposite Philippine assault, will make southeast Asia generation is turned over China affined " the mistake is psychedelic, prevail on China is incorrect its assault. Continue next its are illegal activity, try a these illegal activities " change daily " , finish the nibble embezzle of legitimate to China rights and interests finally.
loony tunes golden(2) the one's own wishful thinking that effective is not which country, is the game regulation of international world after all
We analyse the first in the article in the series of Nanhai problem: " the understanding error that does away with pair of war actions -- the reflection that acts to our country military affairs from problem of the East China Sea of current Nanhai problem " in had proved: The sort of " do not divide particul the best selling 12 volt adaptor ar case and the country external martial action entirely regard as ' can destroy national economy to build overall situation, how does the peace that smashed a state develop with the strategy surely period, the road that the rise that prevents a state revitalizes ' " idea, it is absurd apparently with the mistake. And the reasonable, war that has limit acts, mix to national comprehensive strength national interest is to the front promotes action. Itself advances the significant step of national interest namely, and the only method that still cannot replace in some moment.
So, we try to be analysed from the strategy again today, whether does current international circumstances exist " other powerful nation is Philippine fight with China odd, form instead China associated alignment " condition? Although before the United States one paragraph is in Sino-US strategy dialog,expressed already clearly " the United States holds neutral position on Nanhai problem " , but Chinese home still has a few people to be carried at every turn " once China is right Philippine start a military affairs to strike back, china will is faced with produce a battle with the United States, the situation is very grim. " and the trueingly inference of character " indifferent manner of the United States is posture of a kind of face only, actual it is the United States won't act to Chinese military affairs absolutely of buy without giv most popular selling 12 volt adaptor ing thought to, this is the United States and western country and combination of southeast Asia country lay trap to China " . We analyse an article one piece afore " the understanding error that does away with pair of war actions -- the reflection that acts to our country military affairs from problem of the East China Sea of current Nanhai problem " in had put forward, when analysing international situation, 4 play that should see international world is the basiccest above all are regular:
1. Actual strength principle. Actual strength is the basis of all behavior. Between international world any decision-making, cannot leave this basic regulation. Bilateral actual strength is comparative, it is the base that when the decision adopts what kind of manner and policy, must consider.
2. Interest principle. The action jumping-off place of every country is his national interest, is not the national interest of others. Oneself national interest is any countries external the decision-making jumping-off place of policy. Do not have a person to be able to be willing to make oneself and a stronger opponent produce a battle for the national interest of others.
3. Cost principle. The buying and selling that sustain losses in business cannot be done, the issue with too large price is not able. If a thing has certain strategic interest really, but its strategy cost and strategic cost are too high, enough makes its strategy interest main offset or use up greatly, so everybody is willing to do such thing.
4. Risk principle. If cannot fix the price of a thing,have after all how old, but the risk of this thing is too big, not bigger hold, when perspective is not clear, that unless oneself national interest gets great challenge, when having toing pass drastic step face-off, otherwise " risk principle " let a country do not do this thing with respect to enough.
Now, we contrast game of these 4 international is regular, come careful and objective have a look at the United States to be opposite crisis of Huang Yan island may how act.
The first, actual str 15 pin vga to usb ength principle. Beyond question, china these year actual strength also has very big growth, china has grown for the world system of the 2nd old economy, actual strength of science and technology also develops ahead quickly, had become big state of the key economy that the United States pays close attention to directly and science and technology. In the meantime, force of national defence military affairs also got rapid progress, go up from weaponry no matter or make up from martial training, organization on, becoming the force of a military affairs that makes a person take seriously more and more. Say objectively, although force of Chinese military affairs compares force of the world's most powerful American military affairs to still be put in a few difference, but be by no means the United States need not expend not effort, big cost however at the door him home, not stick one's chin out is knockdown.
Say objectively, chinese actual strength had had great progress, not be who wants to hold what can hold casually casually. And with China the nation with a such relatively powerful actual strength is on martial antagonism, meeting faces what kind of cost and risk, also be any countries are considering what whether cannot take no account of when problem of martial intervening Nanhai. Now, the United States already for many times the actual strength that the front admits that he must consider China, make clear " cannot take with Chinese antagonism " , "The United States is with China innocently enemy " , and the actual strength that Chinese home has a small number of people to must shut an eye to disregard China however, always think " people arms the possibility that intervene is very tall, the doorsill that produces a battle with China is very low, martial actual strength of China can'ts bear biff " , this is actual it is one kind is opposite of international reality disregard optionally.
This kind of idea, actual it is the view that broke away from others and act wilfully him ground debases him, oneself threaten oneself, oneself are press him concede. If a few people do not turn to cross this turn to come, so also do not answer the idea that that oneself goes to representing exotic nation and reason.
(3) wide Sino-US and common interest, it is the base that the both sides in the United States won't be exotic nation and produces martial conflict easily each other
at 2 o'clock, interest principle. From the point of national interest angle, although the United States and China are put in stronger strategic competition, from ideological go up to also have with regime very big different, but also put in huge at the same time common interest. Sino-US two countries has clear knowledge to this, admit jointly: If Sino-US relation moves toward hostility, to bilateral interest will huge is damaged. Sino-US between, put in very extensive common interest base, let the United States won't easily for the thing that is not him core interest to Chinese battle.
Specific for, the foundation of extensive and common interest of Sino-US two countries, reflect in:
Sino-US between extremely huge bilateral trading business volume, from economic impact extremely complex mutual depend on sb or sth for existence concerns. Sino-US bilateral trading business volume reachs 2011 year 446.7 billion dollar, it is the other side each other the 2nd large trade is companionate. And associate of bilateral the biggest commerce all is an European Union, and the European Union is the inattentive organization that forms by the country of many different governments. So in fact, sino-US two countries is the other side each other country of associate of the biggest commerce. Sino-US business relation is by no means " China's one-way dependence American market " , 2011, the United States exports the forehead to also reach 122.2 billion dollar to China, rise compared to the same period 20% , china becomes American exit 11 years to increase the sharpest market continuously. China is 2011 year of American market of the 3rd big export. This explains, the United States cannot ignore this Chinese huge export market. In addition, china still is one of important destination of American outer investment, american accumulative total is in China invest 61 thousand, accumulative total contract invests amount 162.3 billion dollar, china has made one of profit origin land with important overseas of American transnational corporation. And China also the most popular 12 volt adaptor is by no means mere to American exit ad 12 volt adaptor car vantageous to China, a lot of industry such as traffic of retail, content shedding mixes American commerce consumer gains profit from which directly, and the Chinese commodity with low price is great the life cost that reduced the United States and inflationary rate, be helpful for ensuring the stability of American society from flank. Be in besides the direct business share of Sino-US commerce and United States China besides yield, the United States still has the industry such as a large number of marine, shipping, content shedding, haven direct benefit from benefit from is Sino-US commerce, drag in population of American many obtain employment. And Sino-US commerce in last few years development impetus is very swift and violent, tremendous cooperative perspective is had in the industry such as industry of industry of clean the sources of energy, new energy resources, new material, IT, banking, service line of business, environmental protection. Especially these a few years, the United States erupted financial crisis, american economy is not very boom, need the classics trade collaboration with China and financial collaboration to spend difficulty more. This had been behaved very apparently.
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Below this kind of circumstance, if be without necessary ground to be because of the United States Philippine and erupt with China war, and it is difficult that Chinese actual strength decided the United States again the political power with rapid, easily conquer China, alternate China, so the United States is in Sino-US commerce and the interest on Chinese investment are met come to naught. Can the United States be willing to make his national interest gets for the interest of a common associate so heavy loss? I think, won't.
On the other hand, in level of international strategy safety, the United States and China also have wide common interes 12 volt adaptor t. Current world is faced with a lot of new menace and challenge. For example nuclear proliferation, large-scale kill and wound sexual weapon to diffuse, terroristic, extreme force, area safety is minatory, the conflict of different civilization, blow is worldwide peddle poison and have the problem such as constituent crime. In this on a lot of problems, beautiful national capital needs Chinese cooperation, also cooperate hand in hand from what do not open China, the United States also is seeking Chinese cooperation. If the United States for Philippine and enter martial antagonism with China, go up in a lot of problems necessarily Sino-US two countries also will enter antagonism state, the situation that cooperates hand in hand melt into visionary hope. The United States also can be faced on these problems a few more arduous with adverse situation, this also are the United States is in decision-making when the problem of inevitable consideration.
If say, actual strength is to ensure others dare not is opposite casually your despiteful foundation, so common interest ensures the other side has the good impression, base that can coexist each other to you namely. Sino-US between deep and wide common interest, decided the United States won't be in easily Nanhai for Philippine and enter warlike condition or martial antagonism state with China. Although American political circles is sure the meeting is right Sino-US relation has a few cacophony, china also has a few cacophony necessarily when Southern China takes action hostile even clamour, but the actual strength with Sino-US enormous two countries and extensive and solid collective increase, decided American government in is final won't to do not belong to oneself core interest, for the interest with another Philippine country enter warlike condition or martial antagonism state with China. In national interest, especially before extensive and solid collective increase, traditional " ideological contrary " and " regime is different " the position greatly drop back, cannot be on dominant position necessarily.
Relevant report:
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